Fitch Ratings has projected that the United Arab Emirates GDP growth in 2026 will reach 5.7 percent, supported by higher oil output, sustained public spending, and strong fiscal performance. The forecast reflects continued economic resilience across both hydrocarbon and non-oil sectors.
According to Fitch Ratings, increased oil production will play a central role in accelerating overall economic expansion. As global energy demand stabilises and production levels improve, hydrocarbon revenues are expected to contribute significantly to government income and external balances. At the same time, non-oil sectors such as tourism, financial services, trade, logistics, and technology continue to demonstrate steady growth momentum.
The agency also highlighted strong fiscal surpluses, supported by prudent budget management and diversified revenue streams. The United Arab Emirates has maintained disciplined spending policies while investing strategically in infrastructure, innovation, and long-term development programmes. These measures have strengthened sovereign balance sheets and enhanced macroeconomic stability.
Public spending is expected to remain robust in 2026, particularly in capital projects, economic diversification initiatives, and social development programmes. This expenditure supports domestic demand, business activity, and investor confidence. Government-backed projects across real estate, renewable energy, and advanced industries are anticipated to further stimulate growth.
Fitch Ratings noted that funding conditions remain resilient, with strong liquidity levels in the banking sector and stable access to international capital markets. The United Arab Emirates continues to benefit from favourable credit fundamentals, a solid external asset position, and well-capitalised financial institutions.
The 5.7 percent GDP growth forecast underscores the country’s ability to balance oil sector performance with diversification-driven expansion. By maintaining fiscal prudence while promoting structural reforms, the United Arab Emirates strengthens its position as one of the region’s most stable and dynamic economies.
Overall, Fitch Ratings’ outlook reflects confidence in the United Arab Emirates’ economic trajectory, supported by energy sector recovery, strong fiscal buffers, and sustained policy-driven development.
